My take on Russia/Ukraine- 28/02/22

What’s happening in Ukraine at the moment can be described as nothing other than a humanitarian tragedy. It looks like one man’s warped mission to relive a fantasy of global regime change in the form of a Soviet Union Mark II. It failed before and it will fail again, but that doesn’t mitigate the unimaginable suffering of millions of people that’s happening as we speak. Innocents killed, loved ones lost, life changing injuries, mass displacement all completely unnecessary, unprovoked and unjustified.

I’ve seen a number of pro-Putin posts over the weekend, with people trying to justify this war and using what they have just found on Google to rationalise it, and with the prevalence of disinformation, fuelled by Social media, people need to try to look past all the propaganda and see the bigger picture and reality of what’s currently happening.

Some might argue that Putin isolating himself because of his fear of Covid, and shrinking his inner circle to a handful ex-KGB agents alike, with similar Nationalist views, has been the catalyst for this latest decision to invade Ukraine. Regardless, this is a long-running feud, dating back to the fall of the Soviet Union in ’89, culminating in what we’re seeing today. Putin hates democracy, he hates Western values as it’s likely he knows that if Russia had a chance, he’d be ousted. The question I guess is ‘how did we not see this coming?’ Any dictator that makes it illegal to protest, imprisons anyone that speaks out against him and enshrines in law that he will be in power for years to come is likely to pose a significant threat at some stage.

I take my hat off to the brave Russian civilians that are currently protesting in multiple cities across Russia, risking their own freedom to express their disgust in this war and doing what’s right, my hope is that this sentiment spreads to more people of influence, with closer ties to Putin, who stand a chance of altering the course of his future actions.

I don’t think anyone can rightfully say that the sanctions imposed by the West are in any way futile. The Russian interest rates have soared to 20%, the Ruble is in free fall, people are scrambling to get their money out of the banks (if Northern Rock taught us anything, that never ends well) and the removal of Russia from the SWIFT network will cause significant problems to the Russia people and their businesses. This financial isolation could eventually send Russia back to the dark ages, with the world progressing toward renewable energy and decreasing their reliance on Russian energy, which is over 60% of their exports, hitting them even harder.

You’d like to think that with the seizure of their assets and lavish way of life, the Oligarchs with influence would realise before too long that Putin is no longer the man for the job. One major concern for many is, is mutually assured destruction a deterrent for someone with nothing to lose? In my view, in the absence of a coup among Putin’s inner circle, the West need to find a way to end this venture of tyranny, while allowing Putin to save face.

I think Putin’s only way out is to negotiate. His mission hasn’t gone to plan, so he’s lost a lot of negotiating power; what’s one way he could regain a strong negotiation position? Threaten the Nuclear option.

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *